Lasun Alagbe
Ask even a toddler who, between Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Jimi Agbaje, will win the governorship election in Lagos State, he will not hesitate before anointing the first. Even the All Progressives Congress’ opponents in the state know that the party is so deeply rooted that it will take a near miracle to eject it from Alausa – thanks to the hegemony that its leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has firmly established.
Yet, some people would say, in politics, everything is possible. Perhaps that is why the Sanwo-Olu camp too is not taking anything for granted. The way it is planning its campaign seems as if it wants to confront a Goliath.
The fact is that, in spite of the APC’s strength, there are certain factors – if not landmines – it must pay attention to. Should any dramatic thing happens towards the election, for instance, the issues can combine to shock the scene.
Ambode’s people
It would be naïve to say that Governor Akinwunmi Ambode’s hometown, Epe, has ‘forgiven’ the APC machinery that, they believe, denied their son second term. Apart from blood attachment, the transformation that the town experienced in the past three years would want them to continue to see the enemies of their benevolent son as their own enemies too. Their votes may seem inconsequential placed side by side with those of other places where the Asiwaju Bola Tinubu political family have stronghold, but the fact is that in every election, every vote counts.
Ambode’s other people
In this category are residents of some other areas that have got major infrastructural intervention under him. These include Ojodu Berger, Abule Egba and Aboru. To them, Ambode should have second and even third term if possible, as the road and bridge expansion they got means a lot to them. It is naïve to say that they won’t be vindictive as far as the election is concerned. Their votes may not count; but what if they eventually count? Antidote win them to your side and be sure that you do so.
The Oluwo factor
On Wednesday, Ambode’s erstwhile Commissioner for Energy and Mineral Resources, Olawale Oluwo, made a move that many people did not expect. He not only left the cabinet but also announced his exit from APC. According to him, the circumstances surrounding the conduct of the APC primary election were too awkward. He cited some scenarios but every discerning person knows that denying his principal second term is in the heart of the matter. As expected, the Sanwo-Olu camp has written him off as a force too feeble to miss. Oluwo may truly not be a huge weight politically, but his departure may also have left a little gap in the structure. Also, it could be asked: can the move be part of a grander scheme?
Igbo factor
Based on many comments that greeted Lagos APC’s move against Ambode some three months ago, a lot Igbos appeared to be more critical of the development than Yorubas. This was the trend online, although it can be argued that election is not won on Facebook. Yet, the Sanwo-Olu men should note this factor especially in the context of how many Igbos tilted towards PDP during the last election.
Atiku is bringing cash
To say that someone can successfully intimidate Lagos APC with money is like saying someone can intimidate a country like Qatar with oil. Apart from the fact that the state is rich and very rich, Tinubu himself dey kampe. This is besides the fact that Abuja will be ready to match any moneybags with any currency. So, financial invasion by any opponent is not part of their fears. Yet, we all know the role that Jonathan’s dollars paid during the last election and the PDP presidential squad also knows that a lot of things are at stake in Lagos.
By the way…
There is also this ‘by the way’ factor. By the way, how committed are the likes of Babatunde Fashola and Muiz Banire’s Lagos APC extraction to the Sanwo-Olu cause?
