ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 ELECTION BY PROF. M. JEGA (former Chairman INEC)

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, got only 37% of the vote, down from the 56% that Buhari got in 2019.

In 2019 was a two-horse race between the APC and PDP candidates, 2023 was at least a four-horse race between APC, PDP, LP and NNPP candidates.

It was the first time since 2007 that we had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 that we had up to four major candidates in such a race.

The top four candidates in this election got 37%, 29%, 25% and 6% respectively.

This compares closely with 1979 when Shagari got 34%, Awo got 29%, Zik got 16%, Aminu Kano got 10.28 and Waziri Ibrahim got 10%.

The top three runners up in this race got a combined 60% of the vote.

That is impressive, but then, they only have themselves to blame that they did not present a united front before the election. They only tried to present a united front to contest the results.

It is a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Would they have made 60% of the vote if they had united behind a single candidate? Anybody’s guess.

Tinubu’s party went into this election controlling the Federal and 21 state governments. In the event, he won only 12 states outright.

PDP’s Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states,

LP’s Peter Obi won 12 states outright [FCT included]

NNPP’s Kwankwaso won outright in one state.

So how did Tinubu win the race? Simple.

The number of states that a candidate wins outright is important. Equally important is the number of states in which he came second.

Also very important is, if he came second with only a narrow margin in most of them.

Tinubu won 12 states outright [Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Ekiti, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers]. He came second in 19 states [Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Plateau, Adamawa, Osun, Lagos, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Imo and Ebonyi].

In many cases the margins of loss were very small, only 3,000 votes in Sokoto, 12,000 in Katsina and equally narrow margins in Osun and Lagos.

Tinubu came second to Kwankwaso in Kano, second to Atiku in most of the states the latter won and second to Obi in Lagos, Ebonyi, Imo and Edo.

This was exactly how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979.
He won outright in nine states out of 19 [Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Bauchi, Gongola, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River.] He won in Kaduna and Gongola even though his party lost the governorship elections there two weeks earlier, what in those days was called “the bandwagon effect.” Of the remaining ten states in Nigeria at the time, Shagari came second in 9 [Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Bendel, Anambra, Imo, Borno, Plateau and Kano]. Shagari came third only in Lagos, after Awo and Zik.

Like Shagari, like Tinubu; you are victorious if your party is either first or second in almost every state.

Allegations that APC rigged the election also falls flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu.

In terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin?

If they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states?

Why should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom?

Allegations that APC rigged these polls do not hold the water of logic. But those making them still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals.

Cardinal John Onaiyekan, Prof. Attahiru Jega and other civil right actors have called for the convening of a National People’s Conference to address Nigeria’s political structure.

The coalition under the umbrella of the Nigeria Working Group on Peace building and Governance made the call in a communiqué following a convening of civil society actors meeting on Friday in Abuja.

It said that the group offered key observations and recommendations on how citizens could collectively create synergy in seeking pathways to the rebuilding of Nigeria.

The actors included Cardinal John Onaiyekan, Dr Hakeem Baba Ahmed, General Martin Luther Agwai Prof. Attahiru Jega, former INEC chairman, Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim, Dr Nguyan Shaku Feese, Dr Usman Bugaje, Adagbo Onoja and Amb. Fatima Balla.

Others include Amb. Zango Abdu,Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, Dr Chris Kwaja, Dr Hussaini Abdu, Kemi Okenyodo, Mr Jim Gala, Mrs Aisha Muhammed Oyebode and Tsema Yvonne.

The group said in the absence of a binding narrative, series of conspiracy theories had emerged with immense capacity to divide the country along the sharp line of both ethnicity and religion.

It therefore recommended that apart from People-Centred Dialogue Process and Nigerians in their communities, associations, civil society groupings, women’s groups and youth groups should accelerate ongoing discussions to deepen the emerging consensus.

It also recommended the prosecution of criminality and violent confrontations between farming and herding communities which had claimed thousands of lives and deepened ethnic, religious, and regional polarisation.

It said that civil society, the media, professional associations, socio-cultural groups, women, youth, students, and people living with disability should act in one accord as key catalysts for civic action.

The group said that this was because civic action representing key voices was needed to be amplified in mobilising citizens as a basis for compelling governments at all levels to act in the overall interest of the citizens.

It decried the sustained absence of strategic communication between the Nigerian state and its citizens.

“This situation is further heightening the level of desperation among the citizens that are increasingly being detached from the everyday governance of the Nigerian state.’’

The group observed that the increasing insecurity across the country continued to gallop toward the abyss.

It said this was due to the lack of political will and the inability of the country’s security architecture to manage the multiple challenges.

It said that kidnapping for ransom was an acute concern across the country.

It said that the northeast was witnessing resurgence in Boko Haram activity and thousands of people were internally displaced by banditry across rural communities in the northwest.

The group said that the criminality in rural areas further complicated the situation by undermining food security as many farmers had been unable to go to their farms for months for fear of losing their lives.

It said corruption was getting out of control and there was a concerted effort to dismantle anti-corruption agencies and render them ineffective.

The group said that the confidence toward the Nigerian state was very low thereby heightening the divides in the federation and creating widespread demands for dialogue and consensus building on restructuring.

It said that the Nation needed to adopt a sense of urgency in the way it dealt with rapidly accumulating liabilities.

“We welcome the obvious improvements in elite consensus and inclusiveness in dealing with legitimate demands to restructure the nation.

“We urge every well-meaning Nigerians to contribute to the discussions, debates and the search for real and constructive solutions to limitations in the operations of our constitution and the structures that give meaning to our citizenship.’’

The group called on younger Nigerians in particular to get involved in the search for a future without the current levels of bitterness.

Prof. Attahiru Jega, former Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on Friday said that Nigeria’s political space needed cleansing, and urged every Nigerian to contribute own quota to ensure that.

He stated this at the inauguration of the 34-member Policy Advisory Committee of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), on Friday in Abuja.

Jega, who is a member of the advisory committee of the PRP, said that all hands must be on deck to sanitise Nigerians on the electoral process.

“I believe that all Nigerians can no longer sit on the fence as everybody needs to contribute to the cleansing of politics in Nigeria.

“There should be no fence sitters; our future is at stake. We cannot allow bad people to continue to govern us or misgovern us and continue to wreck our country and its future,” he said.

The former INEC boss said that he would help members of the committee to prepare position papers, policy criticisms and policy frameworks that would make PRP a strong political party that could win elections.

Earlier, Chairman of the party, Mr Falalu Bello, while inaugurating the members, had said that the members were thoroughbred intellectuals drawn from a wide field of specialisation and experience in Nigeria’s intellectual vineyard.

He said that the committee would operate in 10 working sub-groups including foreign policy and Pan-African Solidarity and Unity, internal security, civic liberties and values orientation, among others.

Bello said that the primary assignment of the group would involve carrying out a critique of the existing government policies and programmes in the working sub-groups area of interest.

He advised the members to take full cognisance of the many progressive provisions of Chapter two of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution in carrying out their assignment.

“Our party, the PRP, shall court the involvement and participation of intellectual workers in the struggles for material and social advancement of the working masses of this country,” he said.

Members of the committee, which is coordinated by Mr Richard Umoru, include Prof. Ifeanyi Anigbogu, Dr Aminu Aliyu, Mr Abdulkadir Isa, Prof. Ahmadu Sanda, Hajiya Aishatu Dankani, among others.

A committee on the review of admission into the Nation’s tertiary institutions has recommended a new framework to globalise operations at the citadel of learning.

Prof. Attahiru Jega, Former INEC Chairman and chairman of the committee on the internalisation of admissions into tertiary institutions, disclosed this on Thursday.

The report was presented to the registrar of the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board (JAMB), Prof. Ishaq Oloyede.

Internalisation is the process of integrating international, inter-cultural and global dimensions into the purpose, functions and delivery of tertiary education.

It is one of the instruments needed to ensure that the country benefits from globalisation.

Jega recommended that the Federal Government must put in more efforts to ensure the safety and security of citizens and foreigners in the country.

He added that the government must also make conscious efforts to promote the country’s culture abroad through agencies such as the National Council for Arts and Culture (NCAC).

He also recommended that tertiary institutions should open offshore campuses for the export of Nigerian education under a robust regulatory framework.

According to him, currently, Nigeria scores low on the internalisation index.

“In a survey of August 2019 by this committee on tertiary institutions in Nigeria, of the 194 institutions that responded, there were 1,856 foreign students out of the total 1,132,795 students.

“There was 437 foreign academic staff from a total of 5,604 academic staff in these institutions. Foreign students make up 0.18 per cent in universities, 0.29 per cent in polytechnics and 0.04 per cent in Colleges of Education.

“The percentage of all foreign students in Nigeria’s tertiary education system as at 2018/2019 session is 0.16 per cent.

“ With regards to academic staff, the percentage of foreign academics in Nigerian universities is 0.008 per cent, 1.64 per cent in polytechnics and 0.18 per cent in Colleges of Education.

“This is an indication that the teaching staff in tertiary education system is largely dominated by Nigerian academics.’’

Jega further said that the essence of the report was to propose urgent actions to be taken by the country’s tertiary institutions to attract and retain both international students and staff.

He, therefore, called on JAMB to encourage the internalisation of tertiary institutions by promoting admission of foreign students.

He also called on various institutions to take specific actions to promote internalisation of their institutions and programmes.

Responding, Oloyede promised to push for the implementation of the document, saying that the policy on internalisation of admission would be given necessary consideration.

“One of the aspects of the mandate of JAMB is the internalisation of admissions. For the past three years we have been battling with other issues that we are almost forgetting the issue of internalisation.

“Active steps will be taken to ensure that the report will immediately go to the ministry of education for necessary actions.’’

The former Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Prof. Attahiru Jega, has advised African countries to restrategise their approaches in fighting corruption.

Jega gave the advise while reviewing a book titled: “Curbing Electoral Spending” launched by the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) on Monday in Abuja.

The launched was to mark the 2019 International Anti-Corruption Day organised by the commission in collaboration with Nigeria Shippers Council, Maritime and Transport Stakeholders.

“Here in Nigeria, where corruption is in the increase compared to other African countries, we need to take the fight seriously.

“It is a day for sober reflection for us and for reviewing our experiences and restrategise to find better ways and means of improving the successes in the fight against corruption,” he said.

Jega commended the EFCC for its successes as well as other anti-corruption agencies for their contributions to tackling the crime in the Nigeria.

“While we commend them, they also need to intensify their efforts in the fight against corruption because we see that the more effort that is made, the more difficult it becomes.

“The EFCC and other anti-corruption agencies need to continue to demonstrate that there are no sacred cows in the fight against corruption.

“We will want to see a rededicated effort in terms of effective utilisation in governance of resource saved from corruption,” Jega added.

The Secretary, Presidential Advisory Committee against Corruption (PACAC), Prof. Sadiq Radda, said that fighting corruption required political will and determination of the leaders.

Radda said that the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration had made remarkable success in the fight so far.

“I believe, first and foremost, we should acknowledge the political will and the determination of the government led by the president to lead the fight.

“Without the support of the president, I think the kind of momentum we have regarding the fight against corruption woudn’t have been this much,“ he said.

Radda also commended the current synergy between various arms of the government in the fight against corruption.

He said that today, the executive arm of government had said no to corruption, the judiciary was friendly to the executive, while the judiciary also said that corruption must be fought.

Radda said with ongoing efforts to have electronic declaration of assets and the whistle blower policy yielding result, people no longer hid money in the graveyards or ceiling.

“Nigeria has signed quite a number of mutual legal assistance with countries of the world to ensure that thieves are tracked around the world and brought to face justice.

“Today, a former attorney general of the federal is under arrest because of mutual legal assistance of Nigeria with the UAE; more arrests are coming. A lot of successes has been recorded.

“I can say with the EFCC and ICPC of today, looters will have no hiding place in the world, because wherever they go, they will be arrested and brought back to the country,” Radda said.