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ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 ELECTION BY PROF. M. JEGA (former Chairman INEC)

2023 presidential election: At last, INEC gives technical details of what went wrong with iRev system
The three leading presidential contestants in February's election, Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu

ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 ELECTION BY PROF. M. JEGA (former Chairman INEC)

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, got only 37% of the vote, down from the 56% that Buhari got in 2019.

In 2019 was a two-horse race between the APC and PDP candidates, 2023 was at least a four-horse race between APC, PDP, LP and NNPP candidates.

It was the first time since 2007 that we had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 that we had up to four major candidates in such a race.

The top four candidates in this election got 37%, 29%, 25% and 6% respectively.

This compares closely with 1979 when Shagari got 34%, Awo got 29%, Zik got 16%, Aminu Kano got 10.28 and Waziri Ibrahim got 10%.

The top three runners up in this race got a combined 60% of the vote.

That is impressive, but then, they only have themselves to blame that they did not present a united front before the election. They only tried to present a united front to contest the results.

It is a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Would they have made 60% of the vote if they had united behind a single candidate? Anybody’s guess.

Tinubu’s party went into this election controlling the Federal and 21 state governments. In the event, he won only 12 states outright.

PDP’s Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states,

LP’s Peter Obi won 12 states outright [FCT included]

NNPP’s Kwankwaso won outright in one state.

So how did Tinubu win the race? Simple.

The number of states that a candidate wins outright is important. Equally important is the number of states in which he came second.

Also very important is, if he came second with only a narrow margin in most of them.

Tinubu won 12 states outright [Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Ekiti, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers]. He came second in 19 states [Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Plateau, Adamawa, Osun, Lagos, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Imo and Ebonyi].

In many cases the margins of loss were very small, only 3,000 votes in Sokoto, 12,000 in Katsina and equally narrow margins in Osun and Lagos.

Tinubu came second to Kwankwaso in Kano, second to Atiku in most of the states the latter won and second to Obi in Lagos, Ebonyi, Imo and Edo.

This was exactly how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979.
He won outright in nine states out of 19 [Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Bauchi, Gongola, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River.] He won in Kaduna and Gongola even though his party lost the governorship elections there two weeks earlier, what in those days was called “the bandwagon effect.” Of the remaining ten states in Nigeria at the time, Shagari came second in 9 [Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Bendel, Anambra, Imo, Borno, Plateau and Kano]. Shagari came third only in Lagos, after Awo and Zik.

Like Shagari, like Tinubu; you are victorious if your party is either first or second in almost every state.

Allegations that APC rigged the election also falls flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu.

In terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin?

If they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states?

Why should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom?

Allegations that APC rigged these polls do not hold the water of logic. But those making them still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals.

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Why we can’t declare Atiku winner of presidential election – INEC

Atiku should speak up on his state of health
Atiku

The Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) has argued that, as against the request by the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and his party, he could not be declared winner by the tribunal because he failed to fulfill the constitutional requirement.

INEC, on Tuesday, told the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) so, when it said that Sen. Bola Tinubu, presidential candidate of the all Progressives Congress (APC), won the Feb 25 election and was validly returned as winner.

INEC stated this in its reply by its lawyer, Abubakar Mahmoud, SAN, to the petition filed by the PDP and Atiku.
“The 1st petitioner (Atiku), failed to score, at least, one quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory and as such could not have been declared the winner of the Presidential Election held on the 25th day of February 2023.”

As against the claim by the petitioners, INEC stated that “the election was conducted in substantial compliance with the Electoral Act, 2022 and was not marred by any corrupt practices.
‘That the 2nd respondent (Tinubu) was duly elected by a majority of lawful votes cast in the election and his declaration and return as winner of the presidential election conducted on the 25th day of February, 2023 is lawful, valid and in line with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the Electoral Act, 2022.

“Having satisfied the requirements of Section 134 (2) (b) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, the return of the 2nd respondent as the winner of the presidential election conducted on 25th February, 2023 is lawful, valid and constitutional.

“The 2nd respondent was at the time of the election qualified to contest the election.
“The petitioners neither scored the majority of the lawful votes cast at the election nor scored not less than one-quarter of the lawful votes cast in at-least two-thirds of the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory and therefore the 1st petitioner (Atiku) is not entitled to be returned as the winner of the presidential election conducted on Feb. 25.”
INEC, therefore, urged the court to dismiss the petition.

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INEC explains why it is not compulsory or Tinubu to get 25% votes in Abuja

Tinubu

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), on Tuesday, told the Presidential Election Petition Court (PEPC) that Sen. Bola Tinubu, did not have to get 25 per cent of the votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory before he could be declared winner of the February 25 presidential election.

According to INEC, the presidential candidate of the all Progressives Congress (APC), won the Feb 25 election and was validly returned as winner.

It stressed that Tinubu scored “25 per cent of the valid votes cast in 29 states of the Federation to wit: Ekiti, Kwara, Osun. Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Yobe, Lagos, Gombe, Adamawa, Katsina, Jigawa, Nasarawa, Niger, Benue, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Kogi, Bauchi, Plateau, Bayelsa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kano, Zamfara, Sokoto, Taraba, Borno and Rivers.”
While faulting the petitioners’ claim on the status of the FCT, INEC argued that “the provisions of the constitution apply to the FCT as if it were one of the states of the Federation.

The commission also argued that the use of the word ‘and’ in Section 134 (2) of the Constitution indicates nothing more than that in construing two-thirds of the states of the federation in which a candidate is required to score one-quarter of the votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory.”
It argued that by the provision of the constitution, the FCT “has the status of a state and ought to be recognised as if it was a state of the federation.”
It added that the FCT, beyond being the country’s capital, ‘has no special constitutional status over and above the other 36 states of the Federation to require a candidate in the presidential election to obtain at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in the FCT before being declared winner of the presidential election.
“The Federal Capital Territory is regarded as the 37 states of the federation and as such, a candidate needs to score 25 per cent of the valid votes cast in at least two-thirds of 37 states ( to be declared as winner in the presidential election).’
INEC stated this in its reply by its lawyer, Abubakar Mahmoud, SAN, to the petition filed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, before the tribunal.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that Mr Abubakar, 1st petitioner, and PDP, 2nd petitioner, in the petition marked: CA/PEPC/05/2023, had listed INEC, Tinubu and APC as 1st to 3rd respondents respectively.
The petitioners are seeking the nullification of the election victory of Tinubu in the Feb 25 presidential poll.
Tinubu, who defeated 17 other candidates who took part in the election, scored a total of 8,794,726 votes, the highest of all the candidates.

NAN reports that while former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) came second with 6,984,520 votes in the poll; Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes.
However, the petitioners are asking the tribunal to set aside Tinubu’s victory and to declare Abubakar winner of the election.
They want an order mandating INEC to retrieve the certificate of return issued to the APC candidate or in the alternative conduct a fresh election.
Abubakar and PDP are contending that Tinubu was not duly elected by majority of the lawful votes cast during the poll and that INEC violated its own regulations and provisions of the Electoral Act, 2022, in the election conduct.
Responding, INEC said the APC candidate met all the legal requirements to be so announced as the winner of the election.
It argued that a candidate must not secure 25 per cent votes in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) to be declared winner, because the FCT was not accorded any special status in the constitution as being erroneously portrayed by some political parties and candidates who lost the election.
On why it returned Tinubu as the winner, INEC said the APC candidate scored 25 per cent of the valid votes cast in 29 states of the federation.
“Having scored at least one-quarter of the valid votes cast in 29 states, which is over and above the 2/3 states threshold required by the constitution, in addition to scoring the majority of the lawful votes cast at the election, the 2nd respondent was properly declared winner and returned as the president-elect of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

“The 2nd respondent, having scored 25 per cent of the valid votes cast in the 29 states, has satisfied the requirement of the constitution to be declared winner of the presidential election, thus rendering the requirement of having 25 per cent of the valid votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory unnecessary,, the commission said
It also argued that the declaration and return of Tinubu was not wrongful and was made in accordance with the provisions of Section 134 (2) (b) of the Constitution, having scored one quarter (25%) of the valid votes cast in 29 states which is beyond the constitutional threshold for such declaration.
“The 1st respondent denies that scoring 25 per cent of the votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory is a condition precedent to the declaration and return of a candidate in the presidential election,” it said.
INEC added that by the margin of lead, it did not act hastily, as claimed by Atiku and the PDP in declaring Tinubu the winner of the election.

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Petitions by Obi, Atiku, others: INEC appoints 9 SANs for court cases

INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu

No fewer than nine Senior Advocates of Nigeria have been appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission to defend the results of the February 25 presidential election.

The team, according to City Lawyer, is to be led by former Nigerian Bar Association President, Abubakar Mahmoud (SAN). Other members of the team are Stephen Adehi (SAN), Oluwakemi Pinheiro (SAN), Miannaya Essien (SAN), and Abdullahi Aliyu (SAN).

It was gathered from a member of the legal team that four SANs who are staff members of INEC’s legal department are also members of the team alongside Garba Hassan, Musa Attah, and Patricia Obi.

INEC budgeted over N3bn to defend the results of the February 25 presidential and national assembly elections and the March 18 governorship and state assembly polls.

The PUNCH reports that several candidates who lost in the elections have filed petitions at the presidential and state election petition tribunals to challenge the outcome of the polls.

So far, over 100 election petitions have been filed by aggrieved candidates and their parties across the country.

The presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar; the Labour Party, Peter Obi; the Action Alliance, Solomon Okangbuan; Allied Peoples Movement, Chichi Ojei, have also filed petitions for the nullification of the presidential election results.

The commission had on March 1, 2023, declared Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, as the winner of the February 25 presidential election.

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POLITICS

UK lists observations on governorship, House of Assembly elections

UK PM Rishi Sunak

The UK Government has listed its observations during the March 18 Governorship and House of Assembly elections across Benue, Enugu, Kano, Lagos, Oyo and Rivers states.

This was disclosed in a statement issued by Atinuke Akande-Alegbe, Senior Communications and Public Diplomacy Officer at the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, British High Commission, on Wednesday.

It said that a team was sent out by the British High Commission to observe the elections.

According to the Commission, they observed improvements around elections logistics by the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) during the governorship elections, particularly when compared to the presidential elections.

It said more polling units opened on time, there was greater evidence of BVAS and IREV working and results uploaded in real time from polling units and collation centres.

It said these were positive markers to build on for future elections.

The commission, however, said there were notable points of concern, adding that members of the observation mission personally noticed violence and voter suppression in numerous voting locations.

“We witnessed and received credible reports from other observer missions and civil society organisations of vote buying, voter intimidation, hijacking of election materials and the general disruption of the process in numerous states including Lagos, Enugu and Rivers.

“In addition, we observed incidents of harassment of journalists. Freedom of speech and a free press are crucial for a healthy democracy, and journalists must be able to go about their work without being threatened,” it said.

The commission said that the UK was concerned by the use of inflammatory ethno-religious language by some public and political figures.

The UK called on all leaders not just to distance themselves from this kind of language, but to prevent those who speak on their behalf from doing so in this way.

The commission said it was a testament to their commitment to democracy that many Nigerians were prepared to vote in spite of being faced with intimidation and hostility.

The UK Minister of State for Development and Africa, Andrew Mitchell MP, was quoted as saying on Feb. 21 that the UK was prepared to take action against those who engage in or incite electoral violence and other anti-democratic behaviours.

Mitchell said the action could include preventing people from obtaining UK visas or imposing sanctions under their human rights sanctions regime.

The UK minister said there was confirmation of collating relevant information, with a view to taking action against some individuals.

“We urge any party or individual who wishes to challenge the process or outcome of the elections to do so peacefully and through the appropriate legal channels. We will be observing the course of legal challenges made.

“The 2023 elections are not only important to Nigeria and Nigerians, but to Africa and the world as a whole.

“As a long-term partner, the UK is committed to strengthening the ties between our countries and peoples, including by supporting democratic development,” the commission said.

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INEC iReV: Results so far on the portal

INEC begins online voter registration on June 28
INECChairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu

Here are results so far uploaded from the March 18 elections:

Ogun State, 3,631 results were submitted; Plateau, 2,552; Zamfara, 782; Yobe, 1,231; Taraba, 973; Sokoto, 1,017;

Rivers, 4,042; Oyo; 4,537; Niger, 1,810; Nasarawa, 1,986; Lagos, 7,014; Kwara, 1,687; Kebbi, 753; Katsina. 2,285;

Kano, 3,452; Kaduna, 4,537; Jigawa, 1,900; Gombe, 1,124; Enugu, 3,172; Ebonyi, 1,814; Delta, 2,556; Cross River, 1,477; Borno, 1,956; Benue, 2,481; Bauchi, 1,835; Akwa Ibom, 2,414; Adamawa, 1,871; and Abia, 1,745.

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BREAKING: INEC uploads 80 Rivers State governorship election, others on iRev

INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu

No fewer than 80 results from the governorship and assembly elections held on Saturday in Rivers State have been uploaded on on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s portal iReV.

From Lagos, 85 have also been uploaded.

This is contrary to what happened during the presidential election when INEC failed to upload results real time.

It has, however, so transferred over 90 per cent of the presidential poll. has uploaded some election results from the governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections.

Also already on the portal as of the time of publishing this story are some results from Ogun, Plateau and Zamfara.

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Early arrival of election materials recorded in Port Harcourt

FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike

Election materials and electoral officers arrived early in polling units in Port Harcourt, Rivers capital for the Governorship and State House of Assembly elections the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports.

In Woji Ward 6 Units 2, 3, and 4 (Estate Junction) Obio/Akpor, INEC officials were seen pasting voters lists and educating few voters present on the guidelines of the election as early as 8a.m.

The situation was same in Unit 27 (Circular Road), 29 (Alcon Gate) and 51, YKC Roundabout.

Miss Oueeneth Tawosa, the Presiding Officer, Ward 9, Unit 39 Rumeme 7A, Obio/Akpo said that she and her colleagues were set, waiting for the voters to arrive.

In Ward 12, St Andrew’s Primary School, Port Harcourt City, the Presiding Officer, Segun Solomon said the officials were ready and while expecting the voters to arrive.

The Presiding Officer in Ward 9, Unit 2 Obio/Akpo, Martins Konju, said voting commenced at 8.30a.m. while voters were also seen casting their votes in Unit 3 of the same ward.

NAN reports that the atmosphere was generally peaceful while there was increased presence of policemen in the polling station.

Many patrol vehicles were on the streets with road blocks at major junctions in the city.
However, unlike the Presidential and National Assembly polls when electorate arrived at polling stations as early as 7a.m. not many voters have turned out at the time of this report.

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POLITICS

Voters trek to polling units amid tight security in Gombe

Sensitive materials arrive in Kaduna for by-election
INEC

There is high security presence in Gombe metropolis as voters trek to polling units, the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports.

A Correspondent of NAN, who monitored the exercise at Nassarawo, Yelenguruza, Union Bank road, Madaki, Sabon Layi, Herwagana and Kumbya-Kumbya areas of Gombe, reports that there large number of people are trooping out to cast their votes..

Troops and other security agents had mounted road blocks to enforce compliance with restrictions of vehicular movement in the Gombe metropolis.

Also, unarmed policemen were observed escorting corps members, other ad hoc staff and election materials to various polling units as early as 6.55am.

Voters were observed walking to various polling units in Yelenguruza, Madaki, Nassarawo and Herwagana as early as 6.40am.

Some of the voters who spoke to NAN at Yelenguruza said they had to walk to their polling units since there was restriction on vehicular movement.

Uche Moses, a voter, said he was going to exercise his civic right, “having lived in Gombe State for 30 years, it will be unfair not to partake in the electoral process.”

Moses said he had to walk about two kilometres to his polling unit at State Low-cost area of the metropolis.

“When I showed them my voter card, they just allowed me to pass; for now the situation is good and I pray it is maintained so we can cast our votes and go back home peacefully.”

At Herwagana, Ibrahim Abubakar said the tight security situation encouraged him to come out early and he hoped to cast his vote early and return home.

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BREAKING: Court orders INEC to paste, transmit Saturday’s poll results electronically

1.5m polling agents for 2023 general election- Official
INEC Chairman, Mammud Yakubu

A Federal High Court, Abuja, on Friday, ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to electronically transmit the Saturday’s governorship and House of assembly’s election results in accordance with its regulations and guidelines.
Justice Obiora Egwuatu, in a judgment, also ordered the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to upload a scanned copy of the EC8A to INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) immediately after the completion of all the polling units voting and results’ procedures in Akwa Ibom.

The judge further directed the commission to conspicuously paste the publication of its result posters EC60(E) at polling units after completing the EC8A result sheets in the state.
He equally ordered INEC to enforce the observance and compliance of Section 27(1) of the Electoral Act, 2022 in the distribution of electoral materials during the conduct of the polls in the state by engaging the services of independent, competent, and reliable logistic companies who are non-partisans or known supporters of any political for the distribution of electoral materials and personnel.

Egwuatu held that since the electoral umpire averred in its filed affidavit that it was aware of its responsibilities under the law and had not failed to carry them out, granting the prayers sought by the applicants would not do any harm to the commission but instead, energise its performance.
He gave the judgment following a suit filed by the Labour Party (LP) and its governorship candidate in Akwa Ibom, Uduakobong Udoh, including 13 state’s House of Assembly candidates for the March 18 elections.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the applicants, in the originating summons marked: FHC/ABJ/CS/334/2023 dated and filed on March 15 by their lawyer, Moses Usoh-Abia, had sued INEC as sole defendant.
The applicants, who sought seven reliefs, prayed the court for an order of mandamus compelling INEC and all its agents to comply with and enforce the provision of Clause 37 of the Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of the Saturday’s governorship and house of assembly elections in Akwa Ibom.

They also prayed the court to mandate the presiding officers of all polling units to conspicuously paste the publication of result posters EC460(E) at the polling units after completing the EC8A result sheets.
They sought an order of mandamus compelling the commission to mandate the presiding officers of all polling units in the state to electronically transmit or transfer the result of the polling units, direct to the collation system and use the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to upload a scanned copy of the EC8A to INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) immediately after the completion of all the polling units voting and results procedures.

They said this was in compliance with the provision of Clause 38 of the guidelines for the conduct of the polls.
The applicants equally prayed for an order directing INEC to enforce the observance and compliance of Section 27(1) of the Electoral Act, 2022 in the distribution of electoral materials during the conduct of the polls by engaging the services of independent, competent, and reliable logistic companies who are non-partisans or known supporters of any political for the distribution of electoral materials and personnel, among other reliefs.

NAN reports that Justice Egwuatu had, on Wednesday, granted leave to the applicants to proceed with a judicial review, filed requisite motion and put INEC on notice, following an ex-parte motion moved by Usoh-Abia.
Upon resumed hearing on the matter on Friday, Usoh-Abia informed that he had complied with the earlier court order and that their motion was served on INEC same Wednesday.
The lawyer said despite the service of their process, the commission was not represented in court.
The judge, however, said that he noticed INEC:s counter affidavit and a preliminary objection to their originating summons in the court file.
He said the application was filed on Thursday.
Responding, Usoh-Abia said though they were yet to be served by the commission, he was ready to proceed with the matter due to the urgency of the case.
He said the motion, dated March 15, had 26-paragrph affidavit with nine exhibits.
The lawyer urged the court to direct the electoral umpire to comply with its regulations and guidelines of Clauses 37 and 38 on the conduct of the elections.
He said the order was necessary because the commission, in the Feb. 25 Presidential and National Assembly polls, failed to transmit results of the elections in the state and across the country.
He argued that INEC created the regulations and guidelines pursuant to Section 148 and 60(5) of the Electoral Act, 2022 to guide the conduct of elections and collating of election result among others.
Usoh-Abia said INEC’s refusal to comply with the law had resulted in serious prejudice; and had foisted uncertainty and frustration on his clients at their various polling units and wards.
The lawyer said if the order was not granted, the same scenario would repeat itself in the Saturday’s poll.
But INEC, in i
ts preliminary objection, said the suit was incompetent and the court lacked jurisdiction to entertain it.
The commission argued that the applicants had not established a justifiable action against it.
It also said that the applicants acted in contravention of the practice direction by commencing the suit via originating summons.
Delivering judgment, Justice Egwuatu said he was satisfied that the applicants had complied with the practice direction rules in the filing of their application.
He also said that he was satisfied that a cause of action had been established against INEC in the paragraphs of the applicants’ process.
The judge, therefore, ordered INEC to direct all its presiding officers to comply with Clauses 37 and 38 of its regulations and guidelines for the conduct of tomorrow’s election in Akwa Ibom.
He held that the commission had the legal duty to act in accordance with the law.
The judge, however, refused to grant other reliefs.