By Suara Sherif
Nigeria’s export relationship with China is facing renewed scrutiny after the country’s merchandise shipments to the Asian economic powerhouse declined by ₦601.82bn in the second quarter of 2026, exposing the difficulties of converting international trade opportunities into stronger export earnings.
The decline, which represents a 54.30 per cent reduction from the ₦1.108tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 to ₦506.57bn, comes at a time when the Federal Government is pursuing policies aimed at expanding access to foreign markets and strengthening Nigeria’s non-oil export capacity.
The development is particularly significant following China’s introduction of a zero-tariff arrangement for Nigeria and other eligible African countries on May 1, 2026, a policy designed to reduce trade barriers and improve the competitiveness of African products in the Chinese market.
Rather than immediately translating into stronger export figures, however, the latest Nigerian trade statistics reveal a substantial decline in shipments to China, raising questions about the country’s production capacity, export readiness and ability to compete in international markets.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, the contraction in exports occurred alongside an increase in imports from China, which rose from ₦4.96tn in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦5.92tn in the corresponding period of 2026.
The contrasting movements widened Nigeria’s merchandise trade deficit with China from approximately ₦3.85tn to ₦5.41tn, representing an increase of about ₦1.56tn within a year.
This growing imbalance highlights the extent to which Nigeria’s commercial relationship with China remains heavily tilted towards imports, with the country purchasing significantly more goods than it supplies to the Asian market.
For every ₦1 worth of Nigerian merchandise exported to China during the period, the country imported approximately ₦11.68 worth of Chinese products, illustrating the considerable gap between the two trading partners.
The figures also raise broader concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to strengthen its export position despite growing opportunities for international market access.
However, the decline in shipments to China should be considered alongside the country’s wider export performance. Nigeria’s total merchandise exports increased from ₦22.75tn in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦27.02tn in the corresponding period of 2026, indicating that the weakness in China-bound exports was not representative of the country’s entire export sector.
Exports to Asia also increased by 17.55 per cent during the period, suggesting that the decline in shipments to China occurred despite improved performance across the broader regional market.
There is also an important timing consideration. Since China’s zero-tariff arrangement commenced on May 1, the second-quarter statistics include April, when the new policy had not yet taken effect. Consequently, the figures cannot independently establish the policy’s overall impact on Nigerian exports.
Separately, Chinese diplomatic figures reported that imports from Nigeria reached $2.25bn in the first half of 2026, representing an 81 per cent increase year-on-year. However, the different reporting periods, currencies and statistical sources mean that the figures should not be directly compared with the NBS second-quarter data.
Beyond these statistical differences, the central challenge for Nigeria remains its ability to supply the Chinese market with competitive products in commercially sustainable quantities.
Reducing import duties may improve the price competitiveness of Nigerian goods, but market access alone cannot resolve constraints involving inadequate processing facilities, production costs, logistics, certification requirements and inconsistent export supply.
For manufacturers, agricultural producers and other businesses seeking international customers, these challenges can determine whether favourable trade arrangements translate into actual commercial opportunities.
The contrast between Nigeria’s growing imports from China and its declining second-quarter exports therefore points to the importance of strengthening domestic productive capacity alongside the country’s diplomatic and trade engagements.
Improving local manufacturing, supporting export-oriented businesses, expanding agricultural processing and simplifying export procedures could help Nigerian companies take greater advantage of opportunities in the Chinese market.
The Federal Government’s challenge is consequently not limited to negotiating favourable trade conditions but also ensuring that domestic businesses possess the capacity to benefit from them.
As Nigeria continues to deepen its economic relationship with China, the ₦601.82bn decline provides an important indication of the gap between international trade opportunities and domestic export performance.
Until that gap is addressed through stronger production, improved competitiveness and more efficient export infrastructure, Nigeria risks remaining a major buyer in a market where it has yet to fully establish its potential as a competitive supplier.
