By Suara Sherif
Renaissance Capital Africa has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery to N700.41 per share — a 33.41% premium over the N525 IPO price — as refining margins and earnings beat forecasts.
In an October 16, 2026 investment note headlined “Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,” Renaissance Capital Africa lifted its estimate by N80.94, or 13.1%, from N619.47 per share.
The refinery’s 4.1 billion-share IPO at N525 each, valued at roughly N2.15 trillion, has been extended to October 27 to meet investor demand.
The upgrade follows a blockbuster nine-month run: net profit hit $4.73 billion versus a $117.2 million loss a year earlier, revenue jumped 144.5% to $22.48 billion, and EBITDA soared to $5.52 billion from $627.6 million.
Q3 was the standout: revenue of $8.57 billion beat forecasts by 19.7%, EBITDA nearly doubled estimates to $2.92 billion, and margin expanded to 34.1% from 18.7% in H1.
The company also flipped from net debt of $1.73 billion to net cash of $650.8 million, with cash holdings at $6.69 billion.
Renaissance cautions the N700.41 figure is an analyst’s estimate, not a guaranteed return — actual value will hinge on post-listing performance.
