There is a major new forecast for the 2023 presidential election, with The Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research giving victory to the All Progressives Congress’ candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.
According to the outfit, which is a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, the Peoples Democratic Candidate Atiku Abubakar’s chances will be hurt by the Labour Party’s candidate, Peter Obi.
It, however, said Obi lacked the weight required to sway the votes in Muslim-dominated terrains.
But, as ‘The Punch’ reports, there may be some political unrest following Tinubu’s winning.
It warns that if Tinubu emerges victorious, it will likely increase protests and social discontent in the country.
According to it, a win for the APC candidate will likely trigger sentiments of perceived marginalisation among Christians while supporters of his opponents may take to the streets to question the fairness of the electoral process.
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The agency also noted that recent polls, which only capture that small fraction of Nigerians, have overstated support for the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi.
It said, “Indeed, we maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the All Progressives Congress. Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“At Fitch Solutions, we believe that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate running in Nigeria’s February 2023 presidential election. Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) were mostly based on responses gathered online. Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.
“… We believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP. The PDP’s candidate (Atiku Abubakar) is a northerner and we believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South-West and North-Central states while retaining large majorities in the South-South and South-East,” the report added.
