Former Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, has said that the All Progressives Congress is not currently popular with the people.
He said the defection gale it had enjoyed was more of politician and elite thing.
This is as he predicted that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would get the presidential ticket of the African Democratic Congress.
According to him, his potential opponent, Peter Obi, cannot secure the ticket because he does not want to compete.
Baba-Ahmed made these known in an interview on Channels Television on Tuesday.
He said on the APC situation:
“Defection does not guarantee APC’s re-election. I think the assumptions and the calculations of the APC are fundamentally flawed. They think they have all the governors in their kitty, all the legislators, the entire country. The mistake they make is assuming that the opposition is weak, that there is nothing much to do, and that having all the governors and all the money in the world will automatically bring them back to power. Then they have to face the people.
“The quick assumption that one party’s structures automatically deliver victory is dangerous and difficult to organise. When I talk about structures, I am basically talking about money—the money to keep loyalists in place, the money for loyalists to mobilise votes on election day.
“If what (defection) we see here represents the actual spread of the APC across the country, two things have to happen. One, you have to hope that there are credible, free, and fair elections so that the votes of the people reflect this spread. This is very important, and many times people don’t take it into consideration. I was involved in the 2015 elections. We never had anything like this, but in 2015, President Buhari painted the entire North with APC colours and got huge numbers of votes from other parts of the country. People voted against politicians, and he won that election against the PDP.”
He added that the APC is mistaken in assuming that having a large number of politicians automatically guarantees victory.
Baba-Ahmed continued, “They still have a huge amount of work to do. They must do two basic things, which are very difficult. First, they must vastly improve the perception of their record, not necessarily the record itself. Speaking from the street, I can tell you they have performed poorly; they do not command the kind of support among ordinary people that they think they have.
“The APC is presently very unpopular. It is a party of the elite, a party of officeholders, a party of people who are virtually guaranteed to return to power. That is very dangerous thinking. If they believe that they do not need to convince Nigerians, and that money and politicians alone will buy votes, they are mistaken. Citizens can reach a breaking point and reject such assumptions.
“Second, it depends on whether elections are free and fair. It is vital that the 2027 elections are conducted in a free, credible, and transparent manner. Otherwise, no matter how large the APC’s political network is, attempts to manipulate the process could backfire. Politicians may assume they have structures in place and that victory is guaranteed, but they should not tamper with the electoral process. Technology for election transmission is being developed between now and 2027, but no system is completely tamper-proof.
“Two factors give the APC confidence that having many politicians guarantees a return. First, these politicians are expected to campaign and convince Nigerians of the party’s record, especially the governors. Many governors, however, have massive problems in their states, and some have defected.
“Now, in a safe room, they assume that their new APC affiliation guarantees victory. They are doubly offending the population—they have not performed well, and they now wear a different jersey, thinking they can win against their former team. Complacency and arrogance are the two main risks that can result from this kind of political spread. I would argue that this has already contributed to setbacks in some areas.”
